"Russia, in its efforts to re-equip and restore its damaged military and the supporting industry, is almost entirely dependent on China for the supply of critical CNC (Computer Numerical Control) systems," Reuters quotes a new report by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU) in its latest publication on the role of Western components in rebuilding the Russian military.
As of early 2022, Russia's defense industry was nearly entirely dependent on imports. In response to sanctions, the Kremlin organized the creation of new companies around the world closely connected to Russia, allowing them to find new channels for supplying necessary technologies. Due to loopholes in sanctions, Russia continues to produce high-tech drones, missiles, and other weapons using CNC machines manufactured in the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, Switzerland, South Korea, and other Western countries.
In June, Russian company Kalashnikov, known for its AK-47, announced the purchase of 32 CNC machines to support weapons production despite Western sanctions.
According to the ESCU, 90% of the CNC machines coming into Russia are from China, and 70% of the Russian companies receiving them operate in the defense sector. Approximately two-thirds of Russia's heavy industrial equipment, including machines and control systems necessary for weapons production, are worn out and nearing failure. Russia lacks the capacity to produce these systems domestically, forcing it to rely on external supplies.
China, playing a key role in this technological market, has become the primary supplier of critical equipment to Russia. The relationship between the two countries has deepened, partly due to shared geopolitical interests and mutual dependence. While Russia needs Chinese industrial technologies, China relies on Russian resources, such as jet engines for military aviation.
The ingenuity of Beijing and Moscow in circumventing sanctions continues to grow. Both governments are willing to invest increasingly large sums to obtain what they believe could give them an advantage in future conflicts. Meanwhile, the U.S. and European allies face challenges in producing complex weapons without Chinese materials. As a result, many Chinese companies involved in these schemes remain unsanctioned and continue to receive Western technologies and components, some of which end up in Russia.
At the Russian "Army 2024" exhibition, China, Iran, Belarus, and India were present, with India still trying to balance its cooperation between Russia and the West. In such a complex geopolitical situation, halting the transfer of technologies is challenging, considering the dependence of the U.S. and Europe on Chinese manufacturing. However, by next summer, Russia may deplete its military reserves, increasing its need for Western technologies.
The future depends on how quickly the sanctions coalition can force manufacturers to strictly control the export of their products to China to prevent them from reaching Russia or "gray" Chinese companies. An effective step would be to influence Chinese CNC equipment manufacturers and monitor the activities of Western subsidiaries in China to stop any cooperation with the Russian market.
Time will tell how decisively the U.S. and its allies can cut Russia off from these supplies. However, for now, Russian manufacturers are confident that with enough payment, they can maintain critical access to Western goods.
